The existence of GARCH effects in a financial price series means that the probability of large losses is much higher than standard mean-variance analysis suggests. Accordingly, several recent papers have investigated whether GARCH effects exist in the U.S. housing market, as changes in house...

Current estimates of housing wealth effects vary widely. While some of this variation reflects data limitations and inappropriate estimators, we also consider the role of omitted variables suggested by economic theory that have been absent in a number of prior studies. In particular, our...

A number of papers over the last decade have posited that Optimal Currency Areas are endogenous with respect to business cycle synchronization. The claim is that a common currency will greatly increase trade, and then trade will increase output synchronization. Countries that thus seem...

Alexander Hamilton proposed a debt conversion plan for the United States in 1790 that allowed different creditors to choose from a list of different (reduced) repayment options. This plan was not, however, adopted by Congress, which instead opted for a one-size fits all scheme. Modern economic...

Despite housing's economic importance, little has been written on how foreclosures and home prices interact in a framework that includes macroeconomic and housing variables such as employment, permits or sales. Panel VAR results for quarterly state-level data indicate that price-foreclosure...

Models used to guide policy, as well as some empirical studies, suggest that the effect of housing wealth on consumption is large and greater than the wealth effect on consumption from stock holdings. Recent theoretical work, in contrast, argues that changes in housing wealth are offset by...

Although the Scottish electorate voted down independence in 2014, Brexit has led to renewed calls from Scottish political leaders for a second referendum. Scottish independence would likely lead to joining the European Union, and this would obligate Scotland to eventually join the euro common...

Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) effects imply the probability of large losses is greater than standard mean-variance analysis suggests. Accurately capturing GARCH for housing markets is vital for portfolio management. Previous investigations of GARCH in housing...