We develop an alternative test of the 'German view' that fiscal contractions may lead to immediate consumption booms derived from a form of a open-economy permanent income model where we add uncertainty over whether shocks are permanent or transitory. Using a time-series statistical methodology,...

Recommended readings (Machine generated): Alesina, A. and S. Ardagna (1998) 'Tales of Fiscal Adjustment', Economic Policy, October: 489-545 -- Alesina, A. and R. Perotti (1995) 'Fiscal Expansion and Adjustments in OECD Countries', Economic Policy, 10 (21): 205-48 -- Alesina, A. and R. Perotti...

How should public debt be managed when uncertainty about the business cycle is widespread and debt levels are high, as in the aftermath of the last financial crisis? This paper analyzes optimal fiscal policy with ambiguity aversion and endogenous government spending. We show that, without...

Fiscal policy in the Euro area is still dominated by austerity measures implemented under the institutional setting of the 'reformed' stability and growth pact, and the even stricter 'fiscal compact'. At the same time, calls for a more expansionary fiscal policy to overcome the economic crisis...

The role of fiscal austerity has been questioned for centuries, but a rapidly increasing deficit along with the financial crisis in 2007 / 2008 influenced a renewed debate on the economics of austerity. This paper analyzes the role of austerity versus the role of economic growth. It also...

The authors analyze the effects of government spending cuts on economic activity in an environment of severe fiscal strain, as reflected by a sizeable risk premium on government debt. Specifically, they consider a 'sovereign risk channel,' through which sovereign default risk spills over to the...

This paper develops a method for adjusting structural budget balances for asset price cycles and presents estimates of structural budget balances corrected for house-price and equity-price cycles for OECD countries. The traditional cyclically adjusted budget balance indicator, which is the basis...