Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...

The purpose of this study was to investigate and analyze the relationship between foreign exchange and capital market dynamics in Nigeria from January 1999 to February 2018. The study deployed the Non-Linear-ARDL model to study the dynamics of exchange rate and the capital market in Nigeria. The...

This paper attempts to describe the graphical behavior of the distributed lag model in an infinite coordinate space. The “mega distributed lag model” (MDL) is a mathematical framework that can examine the simultaneous interrelationships between all involved variables. The multidimensional...

This paper examines the relationship between BSE Sensex and three other developed markets in the frequency domain. Cross-spectral methods, which are important in discovering and interpreting the relationships between economic variables, are used to analyze the relationships between different...

This paper attempts to describe the graphical behavior of the distributed lag model in an infinite coordinate space. The “mega distributed lag model” (MDL) is a mathematical framework that can examine the simultaneous interrelationships between all involved variables. The multidimensional...

We introduce a new methodology for forecasting which we call Signal Diffusion Mapping. Our approach accommodates features of real world financial data which have been ignored historically in existing forecasting methodologies. Our method builds upon well-established and accepted methods from...

The following paper discusses the analysis of some types of economic time series using an altered time scale, or operational time. It is argued that for some series, observations that are ordinarily thought of as equidistant in time are actually irregularly spaced in a more natural time scale....

The following paper discusses the analysis of some types of economic time series using an altered time scale, or operational time. It is argued that for some series, observations that are ordinarily thought of as equidistant in time are actually irregularly spaced in a more natural time scale....

The objective of this paper is the joint application of two different methodological concepts for the detection of lead-lag relationships in economic time-series in order to investigate their consistency and their potential complementarity. The first methodology, a time domain analysis based on...