"Using an early warning system (EWS) model, this paper provides more empirical evidence on the causes of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, with a view to discriminating between the two hypotheses of "weak fundamentals" and "investors' panic." The results show that there are strong warning signals...

Monitoring the behavior of potential output helps policymakers implement appropriate policies in response to an economic crisis. In the short-run, estimates of the output gap can guide the timing of the implementation and withdrawal of stimulus measures. In the medium- to long-term, these...