Many of the leading models of the carry trade imply that, contrary to the empirical evidence, a country's currency depreciates in times of high consumption and output growth, a manifestation of the Backus and Smith (1993) puzzle. We propose a modification of these models to account for financial...

Explains arbitrage, hedging, and speculation from the standpoint of a participant in the foreign exchange market-whether an individual trader or an institutional trader-who possesses analytical skill, economically sound judgment, and who has access to market data. In the foreign exchange market,...

This paper develops a stochastic equilibrium model of an open economy incorporating speculation in the forward exchange market. The model is used to examine two issues. The first is the role of speculation in stabilizing the economy against stochastic disturbances. Much risk averse speculation...