Using detailed establishment-level micro data, this paper analyzes for the German case the hypothesis by Aghion, Bergeaud, Boppart, Klenow, and Li (2019), stating that officially published figures for real output growth would be systematically understated. The effect rests on overstated...

Distortionary effects of inflation on relative prices are the main argument for inflation stabilization in macro models with sticky prices. Under indexation of non-optimized prices those models imply a nonlinear and dynamic impact of inflation on the cross-sectional price dispersion...

According to the life-cycle theory of consumption and saving, foreseeableretirement events should not reduce consumption. Whereas some consumption expenditures may fall when they are self-produced (given higher leisure after retirement), this argument applies especially to housing consumption...

Spätestens mit der Euro-Staatsschuldenkrise ab 2010 ist das Renteneintrittsalter zum europäischen Thema geworden. Mindestens implizit vorausgesetzt wird dabei, dass vor allem die südlichen EU-Länder aufgrund der Krise auch in diesem Politikfeld unter Handlungsdruck stehen. Von deutscher...

For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability...

Cogan et al. (2009, 2010) claim that the stimulus package passed by the United States Congress in February 2009 had a multiplier far below one. However, the stimulus ́multiplier strongly depends on the assumed monetary policy response. Based on official statements from the Fed chairman, the...