A large set of 5350 trend following technical forecasting rules is applied to LIFFE and CSCE quoted cocoa futures prices, and to the Pound-Dollar exchange rate in the period 1983:1-1997:6. We find that 14% of these forecasting rules when applied to the LIFFE cocoa futures price earn a...

This paper generalises Boswijk and Zu (2018)'s adaptive unit root test for time series with nonstationary volatility to a multivariate context. Persistent changes in the innovation variance matrix of a vector autoregressive model lead to size distortions in conventional cointegration tests,...

The begin and end dates of cartels are often ambiguous, despite competition authorities stating them with precision. The legally established infringement period(s), based on documentary evidence, need not coincide with the period(s) of actual cartel effects. In this paper, we show that misdating...

To what extent can the bootstrap be applied to conditional mean models – such as regression or time series models – when the volatility of the innovations is random and possibly non-stationary? In fact, the volatility of many economic and financial time series displays persistent changes and...

To examine cross-country diffusion of new products, marketing researchers have to rely on a multivariate product growth model. We put forward such a model, and show that it is a natural extension of the original Bass (1969) model. We contrast our model with currently in use multivariate models...

This paper explores the contagious propagation of jumps among international stockmarket indices by exploiting a rich panel of stock and options data. We propose a multivariate option pricing model designed to allow for, but not superimpose, time and space amplification of jumps in option...

We suggest improved tests for cointegration rank in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and develop asymptotic distribution theory and local power results. The tests are (quasi-)likelihood ratio tests based on a Gaussian likelihood, but of course the asymptotic results apply more generally....

This paper provides an extensive Monte-Carlo comparison of severalcontemporary cointegration tests. Apart from the familiar Gaussian basedtests of Johansen, we also consider tests based on non-Gaussianquasi-likelihoods. Moreover, we compare the performance of these parametrictests with tests...

It is well established that the shocks driving many key macro-economic and financial variables display time-varying volatility. In this paper we consider estimation and hypothesis testing on the coefficients of the co-integrating relations and the adjustment coefficients in vector...

This paper provides a continuous record interpretation of the block local to unity asymptotics proposed recentlyby Phillips, Moon and Xiao (2001). It also demonstrates that in the case of homogeneous dynamics and a fixednumber of blocks, the new asymptotic approximation coincides with the...