This paper proposes an original three-part sequential testing procedure (STP), with which to test for contagion using a multivariate model. First, it identifies structural breaks in the volatility of a given set of countries. Then a structural break test is applied to the correlation matrix to...

Most of the empirical studies dealing with international business cycles have disregarded the credibility issues that play an important role in the decision to join or not a monetary union. Most of empirical applications based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for these aspects. In...