examine how tests for bias in expectations, measured using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, have changed over time. In … how to measure the accuracy of forecasts. The results of bias tests are found to depend on the subsample in question, as …

rational as they exhibit an anchoring bias. The forecasts systematically under-predict macroeconomic statistics and the … through this bias, i.e. we find statistically significant stock price effects of anticipated components of macroeconomic …

forecasts incorporate human judgment, they are subject to both unintentional error and intentional opportunistic bias. We … examine whether a disaggregation of the forecast into various sources of demand reduces forecast error and bias. Using … bias, except for products whose production is limited owing to scarce production resources. This implies that …

show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon …