SFB 649 Discussion Paper 2006-065 Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data Ralf Brüggemann* Helmut Lütkepohl** Massimiliano Marcellino*** * Department of Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany ** Department of Economics,...

Key aspects of the impact of the recent enlargement of the EU are analysed with reference to the Central and Eastern European countries. The book demonstrates that the enlargement could have profound consequences on both the new Member States and on the pre-accession members of the Union

It is investigated whether Euro-area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre-Euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-Euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic...