The experience of the Asian currency and financial crisis in the years 1997-8 encouraged economists to develop some open economy nonlinear macro models. Such models allow for nonlinearities – studying the effects of contractionary currency devaluation in contrast to the standard model of...

This paper applies regime switching methods to the problem of measuring monetary policy. Policy preferences and structural factors are specified parametrically as independent Markov processes. Interaction between the structural and preference parameters in the policy rule serves to identify the...

This study empirically examines the spillover effect from US monetary policy to nineteen European economies using Markov-switching models. The results of the univariate Markov-switching models validate the presence of two distinct regimes for both US monetary policy and the stock markets. We...

There is no consensus over the importance of "global forces" on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which "global forces" are relevant. Three conclusions stand out....

In this paper we introduce a small Keynesian model of economic growth, which is centered around two advanced types of Phillips curves, one for money wages and one for prices, both being augmented by perfect myopic foresight and supplemented by a measure of the medium-term inflationary climate...