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We develop a new methodology that measures conditional dependency. We achieve this by using copula functions that link marginal distributions, here chosen to obey a GARCH-type model with time-varying skewness and kurtosis. We apply this model to daily returns of stock-market indices. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134882
Equity index implied volatility functions are known to be excessively skewed in comparison with implied volatility at … index implied volatility from simulating the 30 dimensional return system of all DAX constituents. Option prices are …-dependence coupled with asymmetric correlation response to negative news is essential to explain the index implied volatility skew …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092464
index returns. The proposed models capture key stylized facts of such returns, namely heavy tails, asymmetry, volatility … asymmetric. Volatility is modeled parametrically. The new model is applied to the daily returns of the S\&P 500, FTSE 100, and … EUROSTOXX 50 indices and is compared to GARCH, Stochastic Volatility, and other Bayesian semi-parametric models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092788
This working paper presents the general theory of the higher order "skew lognormal cascade distribution" as a … is studied in details, which incorporates the fat tails into the volatility (aka the volatility of volatility). We show … market index, and the market entropy of the stock market. Such study in the context of stochastic portfolio theory reveals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159227
forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787458
This article explores the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the observed implied volatility … distribution in the formation of the implied volatility smile …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954838
We exploit direct model-free measures of daily equity return volatility and correlation obtained from high …, solidify and extend existing characterizations of stock return volatility and correlation. We find that the unconditional … portfolio diversification when the market is most volatile. Our findings are broadly consistent with a latent volatility fact or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763285
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012817299
We introduce a new fractionally integrated model for covariance matrix dynamics based on the long-memory behavior of daily realized covariance matrix kernels and daily return observations. We account for fat tails in both types of data by appropriate distributional assumptions. The covariance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968271
If you put two mounds of sugar with identical conditions near an ants' nest, which one will the ants congregate at? Kirman explained the process of ant social herding using a simple model, and he conducted an interesting simulation. The fat tail distribution in the security market is well known,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972396