To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

Zur Beurteilung und Prognose der konjunkturellen Entwicklung werden in Deutsehland eine Reihe unterschiedlicher Indikatoren verwendet. In dieser Studie werden graphische und ökonometrische Verfahren angewandt, um die Prognosequalität der rneist beachteten Konjunkturindikatoren in Dentschland...

This paper compares alternative estimation procedures for multi-level factor models which imply blocks of zero restrictions on the associated matrix of factor loadings. We suggest a sequential least squares algorithm for minimizing the total sum of squared residuals and a two-step approach based...

We show in the paper that the decomposition proposed by Beveridge and Nelson (1981) for models that are integrated of order one can be generalized to seasonal Arima models by means of a partial fraction decomposition. Two equivalent algorithms are proposed to optimally (in the mean squared...