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We develop a model of limit order trading in which some traders have better information on future price volatility. As … visible. In either design, a large (resp. small) spread signals that informed limit order traders expect volatility to be high … significantly. Consistent with our model, we also find that the size of the spread is a predictor of future price volatility and …
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We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...
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This paper investigates the information content of the ex post overnight return for one-day-ahead equity Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. To do so, we deploy a univariate VaR modeling approach that constructs the forecast at market open and, accordingly, exploits the available overnight...
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