Based on a multi-year survey of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs), we present expectations of the risk premium measured over a 10-year horizon relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond. Our survey also provides measures of the disagreement over the risk premium. We also provide a measure of...

This paper examines the importance of political risk, the financial risk, and economic risk in portfolio and direct investment decisions. In addition, the components (from the International Country Risk Guide) of each of these risk measures are examined. The components of political risk include:...

In February and March of 1999, we surveyed 392 CFOs about the cost of capital, capital budgeting, and capital structure. The survey consisted of 14 main questions, most with subparts - over 100 questions in total. Although the survey was anonymous, we also collected information on 12...

The existing replication policies at top finance journals are far weaker than the policies at top economics journals. This paper explores both the costs and benefits of having a stronger replication policy in the context of my failed 2010 initiative to develop a unified policy across all top...

We present a selection of seminar slides based on our 2013 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper, "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1640552" Managerial Miscalibration. Using a large panel of CFO forecasts of S&P 500 returns, we find that executives are severely miscalibrated,...

We recently conducted a comprehensive survey that analyzes how senior financial executives make decisions related to performance measurement and voluntary disclosure. In particular, we ask CFOs what earnings benchmarks they care about and which factors motivate executives to exercise discretion,...

Over the past 30 years, there has been a striking evolution in fund management structure with team-managed funds growing from 30% of funds to over 70% today. While much attention is focused on fund performance, our paper presents evidence that this transformation is likely a response to...

We reflect on China's economic performance from the perspective of the experiences of a broad panel of countries. We formulate an econometric framework building on standard growth regressions that allows us to measure the impact of various factors on economic growth and growth variability. As...

Much has been learned about emerging markets finance over the past 20 years. These markets have attracted a unique interdisciplinary interest that bridges both investment and corporate finance with international economics, development economics, law, demographics and political science. Our paper...

We show that equity market liberalizations, on average, lead to a one percent increase in annual real economic growth over a five-year period. The liberalization effect is not spuriously accounted for by macro-economic reforms and does not reflect a business cycle effect. Although financial...