This paper assesses the forecasting performance of various variable reduction and variable selection methods. A small and a large set of wisely chosen variables are used in forecasting the industrial production growth for four Euro Area economies. The results indicate that the Automatic Leading...

We analyze the market assessment of sovereign credit risk in an emerging market using a reduced-form model to price the credit default swap (CDS) spreads thus enabling us to derive values for the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) from the quotes of sovereign CDS contracts....

This paper sheds light on how recent financial tensions in the euro area were ultimately reflected in bank interest rate setting. We make two new contributions. First, we develop a theoretical model capturing banks financing and the rate setting choices. Banks in the model can finance themselves...

Standard measures of prices are often contaminated by transitory shocks. This has prompted economists to suggest the use of measures of underlying inflation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed inflation. Recent work has concentrated on modelling large datasets using...

The purpose of this paper is to study the compensation for in ation risks priced in sovereign bond yields. And we do so by modelling the time-varying dynamics of asset returns and inflation, and then estimating the cost of hedging in ation risks from the perspective of a well diversified...

How much of the heterogeneity in bank loan pricing is explained by disparities in banks' attitude towards risk? The answer to this question is not simple because there are only very weak proxies for gauging the degree of a bank's risk aversion. We handle this constraint by means of a novel...

In implementing its monetary policy, the ECB conducts collateralised credit operations with banks. The bulk of the financial risks involved in these collateralised credit operations are mitigated primarily by the valuation haircuts imposed on the mobilised collateral. Since the establishment of...

How much of the heterogeneity in bank loan pricing is explained by disparities in banks’ attitude towards risk? The answer to this question is not simple because there are only very weak proxies for gauging the degree of a bank’s risk aversion. We handle this constraint by means of a novel...

The purpose of this paper is to study the compensation for inflation risks priced in sovereign bond yields. And we do so by modelling the time-varying dynamics of asset returns and inflation, and then estimating the cost of hedging inflation risks from the perspective of a well diversified...

JEL Classification: D60, E31, E41, E61, H21