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Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle
Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017
for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914
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Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? : German evidence
Heinisch, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2017
relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595370
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The forecasting power of the ifo business survey
Lehmann, Robert - 2020
The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219339
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Forecasting Economic Activity in Germany - How Useful are Sentiment Indicators?
Hüfner, Felix P.; Schröder, Michael - 2008
We analyze four economic sentiment indicators for the German economy regarding their ability to forecast economic activity. Using cross correlations and Granger causality tests we find that the ifo business expectations (ifo), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the ZEW Indicator of Economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014106143
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Quarterly GDP estimates for the German States : new data for business cycle analyses and long-run dynamics
Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2023
Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when quarterly economic growth for Germany becomes available. We use the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013549105
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Konjunkturbeobachtung in Deutschland : ifo Geschäftsklima, DIW Konjunkturprognose und amtlicher Produktionsindex
Brehm, Judith - 2006 - 1. Aufl.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003367690
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Essays on micromotives and macrobehavior, expectation formation, and asset price dynamics
Ghonghadze, Jaba - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009706287
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Evaluation and development of confidence indicators based on harmonised business consumer surveys
Goldrian, Georg - 2001
Die Untersuchung beschäftigt sich mit den verschiedenen Indikatoren der Wirtschafts- und Konjunkturmessung in Europa. Es wird nach einer Möglichkeit gesucht, die führenden EU-Indikatoren zu modifizieren. Die Wirtschaftsindikatoren der EU sollen auf einheitlichen, harmonisierten Geschäfts-...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013421162
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Business cycles and the role of confidence : evidence from Europe
McNabb, Bob (contributor); Taylor, Karl (contributor) - 2002 - [Elektronische Ressource]
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001644786
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Using long-, medium-, and short-term trends to forecast turning points in the business cycle : some international evidence
García-Ferrer, Antonio (contributor);  … - In: Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; … 3 (1998) 2, pp. 79-105
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001769703