Gonzalez, Mauricio; Pineau, Edouard; Estran, Remy - 2021
This paper presents a Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) of debt issuers' credit quality dynamics. We observe ratings published by several agencies (e.g., Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch) for one or several issuers (e.g., countries) and assume that we can find a maximum-likelihood...