This paper studies the pricing of volatility risk using the first-order conditions of a long-term equity investor who is content to hold the aggregate equity market rather than overweighting value stocks and other equity portfolios that are attractive to short-term investors. We show that a...

We propose a loglinear present-value identity in which investment ("scale"), profitability ("yield"), and discount rates determine a firm's market-to-book ratio. Our identity reconciles existing influential market-to-book decompositions and facilitates novel insights from three empirical...

If investors are myopic mean-variance optimizers, a stock's expected return is linearly related to its beta in the cross section. The slope of the relation is the cross-sectional price of risk, which should equal the expected equity premium. We use this simple observation to forecast the...

We study dynamic portfolio choice in a calibrated equilibrium model where value and momentum anomalies arise because capital moves slowly from under- to over-performing market segments. Over short horizons, momentum's Sharpe ratio exceeds value's, the value-momentum correlation is negative, and...

We exploit information in sovereign CDS spreads and the international trade network to provide causal evidence of the propagation of global economic shocks. We show that trade links are an important source of shock transmission using the natural experiments of the Japanese tsunami and the...

Factor cyclicality can be understood in the context of factor sensitivity to aggregate cash-flow news. Factors exhibit different sensitivities to macroeconomic risk, and this heterogeneity can be exploited to motivate dynamic rotation strategies among five commonly established factors: size,...

The cash flows of growth stocks are particularly sensitive to temporary movements in aggregate stock prices, driven by shocks to market discount rates, while the cash flows of value stocks are particularly sensitive to permanent movements, driven by shocks to aggregate cash flows. Thus, the high...

Most previous research evaluates market efficiency and asset pricing models using average abnormal trading profits on dynamic trading strategies. We measure the ability of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the efficient-market hypothesis to explain the level of stock prices. First, we...

We examine the performance of stocks that represent managers' quot;Best Ideas.quot; We find that the stock that active managers display the most conviction towards ex-ante, outperforms the market, as well as the other stocks in those managers' portfolios, by approximately 1.6 to 2.1 percent per...