This paper analyzes the determinants of the recovery ratios and survival times (time until default) for U. S. corporate bonds. We show that seniority, the type of industry in which the firm operates, and the type of restructuring attempted after default are the major determinants of the...

This paper computes the default probabilities implicit in the prices of Brady bonds of seven developing countries and examines the factors that determine the high cross-correlation of the probability paths. The term structure of U.S. interest rates and the ratio of long-term foreign debt to GDP,...

Uzbekistan's transition from planning to market started almost thirty years ago following its independence from the Soviet Union. For most of this period, economic modernization and transformation were stalled, with little change in institutions and policies from those prevailing at the time of...

This report is about the twelve countries of the former Soviet Union (Eurasia). About 85 percent of the region???s economic output is in six resource-rich economies. Today, 85 percent of Eurasia???s 280 million people are no longer poor. But academics who study resource-based economies debate...

Economic growth slowed sharply last year in Europe and Central Asia, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a surge in inflation, and the sharp tightening of monetary policy and financing conditions hit private consumption, investment, and trade. The marked increase in food and energy prices boosted...

Europe and Central Asia continues to be negatively impacted by the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, tighter global financial conditions, persistent inflation, and global economic fragmentation. Economic growth in the region is projected to remain weak relative to the long-term trend,...

This paper addresses the growth, welfare, and distributional effects of credit markets. We construct a general equilibrium model where human capital is the engine of growth and individuals differ in their education abilities. We argue that the existence of credit markets encourages...

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of interenterprise arrears, characterized by n-stage production technology with random productivity shocks. The model shows that large interenterprise arrears in transition economies may reflect substantial business risks in those countries and...

In addressing the precipitous drop in trade volumes in the recent crisis, the real and financial explanations have sometimes been juxtaposed as competing explanations. However, they can be reconciled by appeal to the time dimension of production and the working capital demands associated with...

An endogenous growth model with heterogeneous agents is analyzed to show that “human capital flight” or “brain drain” can lead to a permanent reduction in income and growth of the country of emigration relative to the country of immigration. Convergence between the two is therefore...