In an attempt to predict a peak in the U.S. economy using a classical statistical decision methodology and a Bayesian methodology and using the 1996 revised composite leading economic indicators, it is learned that the Bayesian models have generally outperformed the classical statistical ones...

Since the late 1970s/early 1980s, the entire U.S. economy has gone through some structural changes. Outside of the technological changes, the Federal Reserve monetary policies have probably been the main force behind these changes. These policies, known as soft-landing policies, focused on a...

On November 26, 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the U.S. economy had officially entered into a recession in March 2001. This decision was a surprise and did not end all the conflicting opinions expressed by economists. This matter was finally settled in July 2002...

This paper uses a normative method to compare the performance of the composite leading economic indicators (CLI) after the measure was revised by the Conference Board in 1996 and 2001 with its prior design to check for a claim that the new design improves its performance in predicting a downturn...

This paper presents a methodology for producing a probability forecast of a turning point in U.S. economy using Composite Leading Indicators. This methodology is based on classical statistical decision theory and uses information-theoretic measurement to produce a probability. The methodology is...