Tässä tutkimuksessa selvitetään aikasarjatarkastelun avulla Suomen kokonaistuotannon häiriöiden voimakkuutta ja pysyvyyttä. Bruttokansantuotteen kehitystä vuosina 1860-1991 tarkastellaan rakennemalleilla, joissa aikasarja hajoitetaan trendiksi, suhdannekomponentiksi ja virhetermiksi....

Työttömyyden kasvu oli vuoden 1991 syksyllä yllättävän voimakasta. Työttömyys lisääntyi aluksi teollisuudessa ja rakennusalalla, ja on sen jälkeen kasvanut selvimmin kotimaisessa suljetussa palvelusektorissa. Kevään kuluessa on mielenkiinto kohdistunut siihen, onko työttömyyden...

In Finland the private sector borrowing started to rise rapidly in conjunction with the liberalization of capital movements and deregulation of the domestic financial sector during the second half of the 1980s. The financial deregulation coincided with and amplified an economic boom marked by...

This paper contains a set of tests for nonlinearities in economic time series. The tests correspond both to standard diagnostic tests and some new developments in testing nonlinearities. The latter test procedures make use of models in chaos theory, so-called long memory models and some...

This paper contains a set of tests for nonlinearities in economic time series.The tests correspond both to standard diagnostic tests and some new developments in testing nonlinearities.The latter test procedures make use of models in chaos theory, so-called long-memory models and some asymmetric...

This paper contains a set of tests for nonlinearities in economic time series.The tests correspond both to standard diagnostic tests for revealing nonlinearities and some new developments in modelling nonlinearities.The latter test procedures make use of models in chaos theory, so-called...

Monetary policy affects the economy through the exchange rate and interest rates.It is assumed that the relationship between interest rates and GDP is negative and that interest rates affect GDP more powerfully than the other way around.These conclusions are confirmed here.Estimated...

The permanent income hypothesis combined with rational expectations has led to an important insight into saving as a way of offsetting the expected decline in labour income.This saving-for-a-rainy-day motive is tested and confirmed in Finland.The paper concentrates on evaluating the effects of...

The permanent income hypothesis asserts that consumption depends on current labour income, expected present value of earnings and cumulated net wealth.Based on this idea, a three variable cointegrationsystem, including consumption, income and net wealth, is tested and approved.Net wealth is...

This paper deals with Finnish bankruptcies.It shows that bankruptcies are strongly related to the business cycle and that they are perhaps even more strongly related to indebtedness, real interest rates and asset prices.The importance of these financial factors probably increased when the...