Analysis of oil-price effects generally maintain the assumption that oil-importers can be treated as small economies, which allows oil-price changes to be treated as exogenously set by OPEC. Analyses of oil-price determination rely on the assumption that the demand for oil is a stable function,...

(Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are "test, test, and test". The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992-2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves. Monetary policy is forward-looking, and as part...

This article reviews recent productivity trends in foreign industrial countries. The focus of the analysis is on whether productivity abroad has accelerated to an extent comparable to that observed in the United States. The authors find that foreign labor productivity, unlike that of the United...