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This paper proposes a procedure to investigate the nature and persistence of the forces governing the yield curve and to use the extracted information for forecasting purposes. The latent factors of a model of the Nelson-Siegel type are directly linked to the maturity of the yields through the...
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Model risk as part of the operational risk is a serious problem for financial institutions. As the pricing of … derivatives as well as the computation of the market or credit risk of an institution depend on statistical models the application … of a wrong model can lead to a serious over- or underestimation of the institution's risk. Because the underlying data …
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incorporates this risk. -- Optimal monetary policy ; model uncertainty ; Bayesian model estimation …
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