This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian … values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In this model average we … affect any inflation forecast model. The different versions of our framework are used to model U.S. PCE deflator and GDP …

inflation model, when used to explain inflation persistence. Indeed, virtually all inflationary dynamics end up being captured … model (i.e. lagged inflation) and that the SPI model overemphasizes inflationary persistence. Thus, there appears to be room …" inflation persistence …

.S. inflation. The existing model succeeds at fitting inflation to optimal policy, but fails to link inflation to the economic trade …. Consequently, now there is an explanation for the rise and fall in inflation: the concurrent rise and fall in the perceived Philips …