This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

.S. inflation. The existing model succeeds at fitting inflation to optimal policy, but fails to link inflation to the economic trade …. Consequently, now there is an explanation for the rise and fall in inflation: the concurrent rise and fall in the perceived Philips …