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Model risk as part of the operational risk is a serious problem for financial institutions. As the pricing of … derivatives as well as the computation of the market or credit risk of an institution depend on statistical models the application … of a wrong model can lead to a serious over- or underestimation of the institution's risk. Because the underlying data …
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We estimate a Markov-switching mixture of two familiar macroeconomic models: a richly parameterized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and a corresponding Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. We show that the Markov-switching mixture model dominates both individual...
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