Highly volatile transition dynamics can emerge when a central bank disinflates while operating without full transparency. In our model, a central bank commits to a Taylor rule whose form is known but whose coefficients are not. Private agents learn about policy parameters via Bayesian updating....

This paper characterizes the properties of various interest-rate rules in a basic forward-looking model. We compare simple Taylor rules and rules that respond to price-level fluctuations (called Wicksellian rules). We argue that by introducing an appropriate amount of history dependence in...

Bernanke's strategies for integrating forward guidance into conventional instrument rules anticipate that effective lower bound (ELB) episodes may become part a regular occurrence and that monetary policy should recognize this likelihood (Bernanke (2017a); Bernanke (2017b)). Bernanke's first...

This talk emphasizes the connection between inflation targeting and monetary policy rules. Inflation targeting is not enough. You need to have a policy procedure - a policy rule - to achieve the target. And one cannot design or evaluate a monetary policy rule without a target inflation rate....

This paper compares the properties of interest rate rules such as simple Taylor rules and rules that respond to price-level fluctuations — called Wicksellian rules — in a basic forward-looking model. By introducing appropriate history dependence in policy, Wicksellian rules perform better...

This paper characterizes the properties of various interest-rate rules in a basic forward-looking model. We compare simple Taylor rules and rules that respond to price-level fluctuations (called Wicksellian rules). We argue that by introducing an appropriate amount of history dependence in...