We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The...

We conjecture that the forward puzzle may reflect career risks: when professional investors observe public danger signals about a currency, they require a premium for holding it. We find evidence of this in ERM rates. As deep discounts do signal danger, we next specify nonlinear variants of the...

We apply a new model selection approach that allows for the joint determination of structural breaks and cointegration to examine the term structure of Chinese Renminbi (RMB)-U.S. dollar spot and forward exchange rates during the managed-floating period of 2005-2013. We find that the RMB market...

The neutral band is the interval where deviations from Covered Interest Parity (CIP) are not considered meaningful arbitrage opportunities. The band is determined by transaction costs and risk associated to arbitrage. Seemingly large deviations from CIP in the foreign exchange markets for the US...

The relative strength of the U.S. dollar does not explain the cross-section of expected returns. We find, however, that signed sensitivity of individual firms' returns to moves in dollar strength matters for asset pricing. A portfolio that goes long high-dollar-sensitivity stocks and short...

Separate literatures study violations of uncovered interest parity (UIP) using regression-based and portfolio-based methods. We propose a decomposition of these violations into a cross-currency, a between-time-and-currency, and a cross-time component that allows us to analytically relate...