This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from...

We study forecasts of real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual-level...

This paper examines the distributional impact of capital account liberalization. Using panel data for 149 countries from 1970 to 2010, we find that, on average, capital account liberalization reforms increase inequality and reduce the labor share of income in the short and medium term. We also...

We examine patterns of regional adjustments to shocks in the US during the past four decades.We find that the response of interstate migration to relative labor market conditions hasdecreased, while the role of the unemployment rate as absorber of regional shocks has increased.However, the...

This paper documents two empirical relationships that have emerged as the former communist countries have taken steps to transform their economies. First, data from a sample of twelve transition economies suggest that increased central bank independence (CBI) is correlated with lower inflation...

We propose a macroeconomic model to assess optimal public policy decisions in the face of competing funding demands for climate change action versus traditional welfare-enhancing capital investment. How to properly delineate the costs and benefits of traditional versus adaption-focused...

This paper provides a broad brush look at the impact of fluctuations in global food prices on domestic inflation in a large group of countries. For advanced economies, we find that these fluctuations have played a significant role over the period from 1960 to the present, but the impact has...

This paper provides the first systematic study of how minimum wage policies in China affect firm employment over the 2000-2007 periods. Using a novel dataset of minimum wage regulations across more than 2,800 counties matched with firm-level data, we investigate both the effect of the minimum...

Housing cycles and their impact on the financial system and the macroeconomy have become the center of attention following the global financial crisis. This paper documents the characteristics of housing cycles in a large set of countries, and examines the determinants of house price movements....

What do we know about the incidence and amplitude of house price cycles in countries across the globe? What are the driving forces behind these cycles? And what does this analysis tell us about the future of house prices?