Friedrich Hayek was awarded the 1974 Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for his contributions to the analysis of money and the business cycle, and for his penetrating analysis of the interdependence of economic, social and institutional phenomena. Hayek was a polymath: he systematically analyzed...

"Economists have long based their forecasts on financial aggregates such as price-earnings ratios, asset prices, and exchange rate fluctuations, and used them to produce statistically informed speculations about the future--with limited success. Robert Shiller employs such aggregates in his own...