Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest these markets are highly interconnected...

An important class of investment decisions is characterized by unrecoverable sunk costs, resolution of uncertainty through time, and the ability to invest in the future as an alternative to investing today. The options model provides guidance in such settings, including an investment decision...

Previous empirical studies of information cascades use either naturally occurring data or laboratory experiments with student subjects. We combine attractive elements from each of these lines of research by observing market professionals from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in a controlled...

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest these markets are highly interconnected...

Economic theory is replete with causal hypotheses that are scarcely tested because economists are generally constrained to work with observational data. This article describes the use of causal inference methods for testing a hypothesis that one random variable causes another. Contingent on a...

This paper presents a manageable and effective way of nesting two popular, yet distinct approaches to obtain optimal hedging ratios - time-series econometrics (GARCH) and dynamic programming (DP). The nested DP-GARCH model is then compared to a DP-GARCH model that accounts for variability in the...

Various bid-ask spread estimators are applied to transaction data from LIFFE commodity futures markets, and the resulting estimates are compared to observed actual bid-ask spreads. Results suggest that actual bid-ask spreads, unlike effective spreads, can be reasonably estimated using...

The effects of volatility of barge and ocean freight prices on prices throughout the international grain-marketing channel are analyzed using a Multivariate GARCH-M model. The model is used to infer the extent to which transportation price risk affects the level of international grain prices....

This research compares partial equilibrium and statistical time-series approaches to hedging. The finance literature stresses the former approach, while the applied economics literature has focused on the latter. We compare the out-of-sample hedging effectiveness of the two approaches when...

This research compares partial equilibrium and statistical time-series approaches to hedging. The finance literature stresses the former approach, while the applied economics literature has focused on the latter. We compare the out-of-sample hedging effectiveness of the two approaches when...