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We present a procedure for evaluating ex ante the effects of alternative paths of a monetary policy tool (the federal funds rate in our illustrations) on output and the price level within a variant of a widely used vector autoregressive model of the U.S. economy. This exercise is a supplement...
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This paper (i) illustrates how a VAR model can be used to evaluate inflation targeting, (ii) derives the policy frontier available to the central bank using counterfactual experiments with real time data, and (iii) estimates how this frontier has changed over time in terms of the position and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005800482
This paper (i) illustrates how a VAR model can be used to evaluate inflation targeting, (ii) derives the policy frontier available to the central bank using counterfactual experiments with real time data, and (iii) estimates how this frontier has changed over time in terms of the position and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005800503
We suggest a new way of computing the inflation-output variability tradeoff under inflation forecast targeting. Our approach is based on dynamic, stochastic simulations of the average inflation rate over a two-year horizon using the moving average representation of a vector autoregressive (VAR)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010540653
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