probability, the stronger economy, and the aging of the population. Third, the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible …In this article we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the United States. We propose a dynamic … equilibrium model that guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime. Our main …

environment. Using geocoded crime data and a novel source of within-city spatial and temporal variation in punishment severity, I … consistent with police treating enforcement effort and punishment severity as complementary. I also find that citywide crime and …