We analyse the ability of credit gap measures to predict banking crises by estimating the usefulness measure conditionally on policymaker's preferences. The results show that the signals based on the credit gap indicators are most useful when the policymaker’s preferences regarding Type I and...

The aggregate saving indicator does not directly reflect changes in individuals’ microeconomic behavior. From the official statistics’ point of view, households choose between spending, which generates additional income and consumption in the economy, and setting money aside, which does not....

The author set up a simplistic agent-based model where agents learn with reinforcement observing an incomplete set of variables. The model is employed to generate an artificial dataset that is used to estimate standard macro econometric models. The author shows that the results are qualitatively...