This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations with the macroeconomy. A quarterly vector error correction model is estimated over 1970-2009 using supply and demand forces central to the determination of euro area house...

Perez and Hiebert discuss the role of fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models. They note that rules are designed to guarantee that the intertemporal budget constraint of the government is satisfied. Rules avoid explosive paths for the debt ratio and influence the adjustment of policy...

The methodological issues and econometric problems in the empirical assessment of the determinants of growth are systematically reviewed in the first part of the paper by Hiebert, Lamo, de Ávila and Vidal. In the second part, the authors assess empirically the long-run effects of fiscal policy...

We introduce a methodology to characterise financial cycles combining a novel multivariate spectral approach to identifying common cycle frequencies across a set of indicators, and a time varying aggregation emphasising systemic developments. The methodology is applied to 13 European Union...

The general acceleration of trade globalisation over the last decade - or a growing interdependence of economies via trade, production and financial market linkages - has engendered several macroeconomic implications for the euro area. This paper focuses on assessing the key impacts on the euro...

The Global Financial Crisis unleashed changes in the operating and regulatory environments for large international banks. This paper proposes a novel taxonomy to identify and track business model evolution for the 30 Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs). Drawing from banks' reporting, it...

We empirically analyse the response of US manufacturing labour market variables to various shocks, notably to trade openness and technology. The econometric approach involves an application of the recently developed global VAR (GVAR) methodology of Dees, DiMauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2005) to 12...

We demonstrate that financial cycles (identified as common fluctuations in credit and asset prices, proxying balance-sheet leverage) strongly differ across countries, e.g., in duration. This is contradictory to a similar duration assumption inherent in prevalent proxies of financial cycles, such...