We analyze covariance matrix estimation from the perspective of market risk management, where the goal is to obtain accurate estimates of portfolio risk across essentially all portfolios—even those with small standard deviations. We propose a simple but effective visualization tool to assess...

We find that an increase in the ``unusualness'' of news with negative sentiment predicts an increase in stock market volatility. Similarly, unusual positive news forecasts lower volatility. Our analysis is based on more than 360,000 articles on 50 large financial companies, published in...

We derive an explicit representation of the transitions of the Heston stochastic volatility model and use it for fast and accurate simulation of the model. Of particular interest is the integral of the variance process over an interval, conditional on the level of the variance at the endpoints....

This paper develops formulas for pricing caps and swaptions in LIBOR market models with jumps. The arbitrage-free dynamics of this class of models were characterized in Glasserman and Kou (1999) in a framework allowing for very general jump processes. For computational purposes, it is convenient...

This paper characterizes the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates, in the presence of both jumps and diffusion, when the term structure is modeled through simple forward rates (i.e., through discretely compounded forward rates evolving continuously in time) or forward swap rates. Whereas...

Affine jump-diffusion (AJD) processes constitute a large and widely used class of continuous-time asset pricing models that balance tractability and flexibility in matching market data. The prices of e.g., bonds, options, and other assets in AJD models are given by extended pricing transforms...

Many of the most widely used models in finance fall within the affine family of diffusion processes. The affine family combines modeling flexibility with substantial tractability, particularly through transform analysis; these models are used both for econometric modeling and for pricing and...

This article develops precise connections among two general approaches to building interest rate models: a general equilibrium approach using a pricing kernel and the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton framework based on specifying forward rate volatilities and the market price of risk. The connections...

An important recent development in the pricing of interest rate derivatives is the emergence of models that incorporate lognormal volatilities for forward Libor or forward swap rates while keeping interest rates stable. These market models have three attractive features: they preclude arbitrage...