Exchange-rate-based stabilisations, even if successful, usually lack credibility initially. This is reflected in high (ex post) real interest rates and some degree of real exchange rate appreciation. Empirical observation suggests that wage inflation declines smoothly over time whilst interest...

This chapter investigates the implications of adaptive learning in the private sector's formation of inflation expectations for the conduct of monetary policy. We first review the literature that studies the implications of adaptive learning processes for macroeconomic dynamics under various...

Das dritte Kapitel trägt den Titel "Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation." Es handelt sich hierbei um eine Zusammenarbeit mit Shoujian Zhang. Im Fokus der Untersuchung stehen antizipierte Steuerreformen. Die Individuen in der Ökonomie haben nicht-rationale...

This paper offers an alternative rationalization for opportunistic behaviour i.e., a gradual disinflation strategy where policymakers react asymmetrically to supply shocks, opting to disinflate only in recessionary period. Specifically, we show that adaptive expectations combined with asymmetry...