We quantify the effects of hiring subsidies using the model of Mortensen and Pissarides (2003). The job creation effect can be large in a weak labor market. However, in the long-run, subsidies raise the wage and equilibrium unemployment.

Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, ut*, in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply...