The Tax-to-GDP ratio is an important tool for both economists and policymakers. Despite its pivotal role, this indicator is measured and analyzed without due attention to the potential biases stemming from the so called non-observed economy. This note aims at filling this gap, pointing out the...

The Tax-to-GDP ratio is an important tool for both economists and policymakers. Despite its pivotal role, this indicator is measured and analyzed without due attention to the potential biases stemming from the so called non-observed economy. This note aims at filling this gap, pointing out the...

Permanent and widespread psychological biases affect both the subjective probability of future economic events and their retrospective interpretation. They may give rise to a systematic gap between (over-critical) judgments and (over-optimistic) expectations – the ‘‘forecast” error. When...

We develop a general theoretical model to compare two different policymakers both facing tax evasion. Policymakers differs in that they aim to maximize either the fiscal revenues (T ) as in a social-democracy as, e.g., Sweden, or the GDP as in a capitalistic country as, e.g., the USA. Both...

No, they are not; at least not in the UK. By examining GDP dynamics we find that, over a time-span of two decades, an easy-to-perform adaptive expectations model systematically outperforms other standard predictors in terms of squared forecasting errors. This should reduce model uncertainty and...

Using data from the Italian Institute of Statistics, I examine the cyclical properties of three labor inputs - regular employees, regular self-employed, and underground workers. Results support the widespread view that, in Italy, the shadow employment functions as an improper tool for increasing...

We develop a general theoretical model to compare two different policymakers both facing tax evasion. Policymakers differs in that they aim to maximize either the fiscal revenues (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$T$$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) as in a social-democracy as, e.g., Sweden, or the GDP as in a capitalistic country as, e.g., the USA. Both...</equationsource></inlineequation>

In many countries the shadow employment has a very high priority among policymakers. A new time series for this component of the labour market has been recently released by the Italian institute of statistics. Taken together they give the motivation and the occasion for a fresh analysis of the...

No, they are not; at least not in the UK. By examining GDP dynamics we find that, over a time-span of two decades, an easy-to-perform adaptive expectations model systematically outperforms other standard predictors in terms of squared forecasting errors. This should reduce model uncertainty and...