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Conventional financial theory considers ex-ante that risk, generally measured by the volatility, has to be …
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also accommodate both unspanned macro risks and unspanned stochastic volatility in the term structure literature …
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fnancial institutions. We show that the 10-year Treasury yield's forward-looking volatility, a VIX-style measure that is a … volatility of crude oil prices over the near term. Using monthly data from 2003 to 2020, we document that higher implied … volatility in the 10-year U.S. Treasury derivatives market predicts declining oil prices and higher forward-looking volatility in …
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