A conference held at the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C., December 2-3, 2005, sponsored by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy. The Forum comprises the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), the Center for...

We compare different methods for estimating forwardlooking output and inflation equations and show that weak identification can be an issue in conventional GMM estimation. GMM and maximum likelihood procedures that impose the dynamic constraints implied by the forwardlooking relation on the...

This paper considers the joint problem of model estimation and implementation of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty regarding the process of structural change in the economy. We model unobserved structural change through time variation in the natural rates of interest and unemployment....