1. An Uncertain and More Complex Environment Requires you Learn From Your Decisions – Question the Known and Seek Answers to the Unknown -- 2. How the Journey to Improved Decision Making Started with my Introduction to the Silo Problem and the Importance of Understanding Both Sides of a Story...

Chaparral Steel : a model systems design -- Critical arguments : the Toulmin Argumentation Schema (TAS) -- Assumptions : Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing (SAST) -- A critical application : the U.S. Census Bureau -- Complex messy systems -- Synthesis : putting it all together --...

This paper describes the results of a two-and-a-half year effort in proactive planning at the Bureau of the Census in Washington, D.C. Most large-scale organizations merely react to their future(s) instead of actively planning for and thus anticipating the future(s) they would like to bring...