We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

In more deregulated markets such as the UK, demand forecasting is vital for the electric industry as it is used to set electricity generation and purchasing, establishing electricity prices, load switching and demand response. In this paper we produce improved short-term forecasts of the demand...