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This paper compares alternative models of time-varying macroeconomic volatility on the basis of the accuracy of point and density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In this analysis, we consider both Bayesian autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100483
This paper compares alternative models of time-varying macroeconomic volatility on the basis of the accuracy of point and density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In this analysis, we consider both Bayesian autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082395
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direct forecasts when estimation error is a first-order concern, i.e. in small samples and for long forecast horizons …
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