We show that in misspecified models with useless factors (for example, factors that are independent of the returns on the test assets), the standard inference procedures tend to erroneously conclude, with high probability, that these irrelevant factors are priced and the restrictions of the...

This paper studies some seemingly anomalous results that arise in possibly misspecified and unidentified linear asset-pricing models estimated by maximum likelihood and one-step generalized method of moments (GMM). Strikingly, when useless factors (that is, factors that are independent of the...

We provide an in-depth analysis of the theoretical properties of the Hansen-Jagannathan (HJ) distance that incorporates a no-arbitrage constraint. Under a multivariate elliptical distribution assumption, we present explicit expressions for the HJ-distance with a no-arbitrage constraint, the...

This paper presents a general statistical framework for estimation, testing and comparison of asset pricing models using the unconstrained distance measure of Hansen and Jagannathan (1997). The limiting results cover both linear and nonlinear models that could be correctly specified or...

In this paper, we extend the results in Hansen (1982) regarding the asymptotic distribution of GMM sample moment conditions. In particular, we show that the part of the scaled sample moment conditions that gives rise to degeneracy in the asymptotic normal distribution is T-consistent and has a...

Since Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972) and Fama and MacBeth (1973), the two-pass cross-sectional regression (CSR) methodology has become the most popular approach for estimating and testing asset pricing models. Statistical inference with this method is typically conducted under the assumption...

Explaining movements in daily stock prices is one of the most difficult tasks in modern finance. This paper contributes to the existing literature by documenting the impact of geomagnetic storms on daily stock market returns. A large body of psychological research has shown that geomagnetic...

Many asset pricing models include risk factors that are only weakly correlated with the asset returns. We show that in the presence of a factor that is independent of the returns ("useless factor"), the standard inference procedures for evaluating its pricing ability could be highly misleading...

He, Kelly and Manela (2017, HKM) offer strong empirical support to innovations in the equity capital ratio of the New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) primary dealers as a priced risk factor across major asset classes. This leads them to conclude that primary dealers are special marginal investors...

Recurrence relations for integrals that involve the density of multivariate normal distributions are developed. These recursions allow fast computation of the moments of folded and truncated multivariate normal distributions. Besides being numerically efficient, the proposed recursions also...