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Recession Forecasting with Dynamic Probit Models under Real Time Conditions

Proaño, Christian R. - 2010

In this paper a dynamic probit model for recession forecasing under pseudo-real time is set up using a large set of macroeconomic and financial monthly indicators for Germany. Using different initial sets of explanatory variables, alternative dynamic probit specifications are obtained through an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460497

The Economics of the Phillips Curve: Formation of Inflation Expectations versus Incorporation of Inflation Expectations

Palley, Thomas I. - 2011

This paper examines the theory of the Phillips curve, focusing on the distinction between "formation" of inflation … expectations and "incorporation" of inflation expectations. Phillips curve theory has largely focused on the former. Explaining the … Phillips curve by reference to expectation formation keeps Phillips curve theory in the policy orbit of natural rate thinking …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460505

Worker debt, default ans diversity of financial fragility

Charpe, Matthieu; Flaschel, Peter - 2011

This paper presents a model addressing the conditions under which financial instability arises in the event of household debt. The model addresses two main cases. First, household debt is affected by functional income distribution. Second, household debt is affected by credit supply and depends...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460506

The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory decompositions in cointegrated systems

Schreiber, Sven - 2011

The topic of this paper is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock-Watsonand Gonzalo-Granger permanent-transitory decompositions in the frameworkof the cointegrated vector-autoregression. Specifically, we suggest an approach to construct the confidence interval of the transitory component in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460507

Monetary Policy and Central Banking after the Crisis: The Implications of Rethinking Macroeconomic Theory

Palley, Thomas I. - 2011

reform program is rooted in a rethink of macroeconomic theory compelled by the crisis. There are some overlaps between the … similarity of form is mistaken for similarity of substance.The insider program makes no changes to macroeconomic theory and is … sins of omission. The outsider program fundamentally challenges existing macroeconomic theory and is also highly critical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460508

Combining Recession Probability Forecasts from a Dynamic Probit Indicator

Theobald, Thomas - 2012

This paper analyzes the real-time out-of-sample performance of three kinds of combination schemes. While for each the set of underlying forecasts is slightly modified, all of them are real-time recession probability forecasts generated by a dynamic probit indicator. Among the considered...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460514

Towards Keynesian DSGD (isequilibrium) Modelling: Real-Financial Market Interactions with Heterogeneous Expectations Dynamics

Charpe, Matthieu; Flaschel, Peter; Hartmann, Florian; … - 2012

We consider an alternative modelling approach to the mainstream DSGE paradigm, namely basically a Dynamic Stochastic General Disequilibrium model of continuous adjustment processes on interacting real and financial markets. We introduce heterogeneous capital gain expectations (chartists and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460516

Monthly recession predictions in real time: A density forecast approach for German industrial production

Rietzler, Katja; Stephan, Sabine - 2012

In this paper we present a methodology which can help to improve the assessment of the current economic situation. We propose an approach which combines multivariate single equations to forecast the monthly growth rate of industrial production with a density forecast. This allows to estimate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460518

Agent-based risk management - A regulatory approach to financial markets

Theobald, Thomas - 2012

This paper provides market risk calculation for an equity-based trading portfolio. Instead of relying on the purely stochastic internal model method, which banks currently apply in line with the Basel regulatory requirements, we propose to include also alternative price mechanisms from the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460520

Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis

Theobald, Thomas - 2012

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460521