As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in activity across the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market and infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these market prices. Beginning in January 2023, we document a significant increase in U.S. CDS trading activity and...

We extend the model presented in Bonollo et al. by introducing a multiscenario framework that allows for a richer and more realistic specification, including non-static (stochastic) probabilities of default and losses given default. Though more complex from a computational point of view, the...

While credit risk transfer market dramatically increases the complexity of lender's incentive structure and above all reduces the incentives of the bank to monitor debtor, a ‘harsh' bankruptcy environment (as evidenced in the shift from the debtor controlled to creditor controlled...

We propose an explanation for default contagion based on a Lucas model with two independent debt-financed trees. The transmission mechanism is that variations in the size of one tree impact the level of risk premium and the default decision for all borrowers. If a negative shock hits one tree,...