Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY -- II. WHAT ARE RISK PREMIUMS ON THE DOLLAR AND HOW CAN WE MEASURE THEM? -- III. CAPITAL FLOWS AND RISK PREMIUMS -- IV. EXPLAINING RISK PREMIUM MOVEMENTS -- V. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- DATA AND REGRESSION METHODOLOGY -- References.

This paper studies how financial stress is transmitted from advanced to emerging economies, using a new financial stress index for emerging economies. An episode of financial stress is defined as a period when the financial system's ability to intermediate may be impaired. Previous financial...

This paper assesses how pro-poor and inclusive Asia's recent growth has been, and what factors have been driving these outcomes. It finds that while poverty has fallen across the region over the last two decades, inequality has increased, dampening the impact of growth on poverty reduction. As a...

Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world's highest levels of...

We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals;...

Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find that domestic forces play a larger role relative to...

In this paper we report estimates of the effective sterling, sterling/Deutsche mark and sterling/US dollar risk premia over a monthly 1987-2001 sample, generated using a conditional factor model for the stochastic discount factor of a representative 'worldwide' investor. The model relates this...

In this paper, inflation dynamics in the United Kingdom are re-examined. Standard specifications of traditional Phillips curves have tended to overpredict inflation in the recent low inflation, low unemployment era in the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area. This has stimulated...