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The literature on business cycle synchronization in Europe frequently presumes an alleged ‘core‒periphery' pattern without providing empirical verification of the underlying cyclical (dis)similarities or the supposed but unobservable ‘European business cycle(s)'. To provide a data-based...
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This document analyses real-time revisions in output gap estimates published by the European Commission for 15 countries over the period 2002-2014. We find that output gap revisions (both in levels and changes) are mainly driven by GDP growth forecast errors. Also, output gap revisions have...
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