The literature on endogenous growth cycles predicts countercyclical R&D expenditure. Aggregate R&D expenditure in G7 countries from 1973 to 1997 seems to be procyclical. Implications for future theoretical research are discussed.

The literature on endogenous growth cycles predicts countercyclical R&D expenditure. Aggregate R&D expenditure in G7 countries from 1973 to 1997 seems to be procyclical. Implications for future theoretical research are discussed.

This paper applies volatility measures and VAR spectral analytic techniques to give a thorough description of the salient business cycle characteristics of central NIPA aggregates for the G7. Furthermore, their role in contributing to the supranational G7 and EURO15 cyclic dynamics is...

This paper applies volatility measures and VAR spectral analytic techniques to give a thorough description of the salient business cycle characteristics of central NIPA aggregates for the G7. Furthermore, their role in contributing to the supranational G7 and EURO15 cyclic dynamics is...

Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995a, b), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are four-fold. First, the yield curve predicts future recessions in all countries. Second, term spreads forecast...

This paper examines the importance of monetary disturbances for cyclical fluctuations in real activity and inflation. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to assign a structural interpretation to orthogonal...

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks...

This paper analyses how labour market heterogeneity affects unemployment, productivity and business cycle dynamics that are relevant for monetary policy. The model matches remarkably well the short and long run dynamics of skilled and unskilled workers. Skill mismatch and skill-specific labour...